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The Other Decline in Homicides

I’ve posted this chart of homicides by race many times, one thing that is striking about it, beside the very obvious Ferguson effect, is that Hispanic homicides declined faster than those of other races from 2005 to 2013.

Yearly homicide rates 2002-2016

Looking at state level data, the biggest declines occurred in the South and Arizona

Decline in homicides

Some states’ homicide data was suppressed because of privacy restrictions that come in effect when there occur less than 10 homicides.

Map of the decline in Hispanic homicides

To get around the data restrictions we can group the data by census division instead of by state.

Decline in Hispanic Homicides by census division
Map of the decline in Hispanic homicides by census division

Comparing average rates by single year age groups less babies were getting killed during 2013-2017 compared to 2002-2006, but the big decline in homicide rates starts at 14, and reaches its biggest decrease at 18-20.

difference in age specific homicide rates

Finally, a big chunk of the decline occurred in major urban areas and note how crime kept decreasing through the Great Recession

difference in age specific homicide rates

August 26th, 2020


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